Understanding the forces
shaping economies.
Independent research into economic conditions, institutions, decisions and the forces that connect economies to financial markets.
Economics first.
Markets second.
Economic research begins with a question about how the world works, not a forecast about where a market should trade. We investigate growth, prices, incentives, policy, institutions and the allocation of resources.
We combine economic reasoning with historical evidence and statistical analysis. Where appropriate, technical market analysis provides an additional perspective on how economic conditions are reflected in prices, liquidity and market structure. It does not replace economic evidence.
Six areas. One discipline.
Distinct perspectives on the same economic system.
01Macroeconomics
Understanding economies at scale.
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Macroeconomics
Understanding economies at scale.
Growth, output, inflation, employment, productivity and the business cycle.
RESEARCH SUBJECTS
- GDP and economic growth
- Inflation and deflation
- Employment and unemployment
- Fiscal policy and public debt
- Productivity and recessions
QUESTIONS WE INVESTIGATE
- Does GDP growth necessarily imply greater prosperity?
- Can inflation decline while the cost of living remains elevated?
- Do financial markets anticipate recessions?
02Microeconomics
The economics of individual decisions.
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Microeconomics
The economics of individual decisions.
How consumers, firms and institutions allocate scarce resources and form prices.
RESEARCH SUBJECTS
- Supply and demand
- Price formation and elasticity
- Opportunity cost
- Incentives and competition
- Market efficiency
QUESTIONS WE INVESTIGATE
- How do prices emerge from individual choices?
- When do incentives lead to inefficient outcomes?
03Monetary Economics
The economics of money.
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Monetary Economics
The economics of money.
Money, credit, interest rates, central banks and monetary transmission.
RESEARCH SUBJECTS
- Interest rates
- Money supply and credit
- Central banking
- Quantitative easing
- Inflation expectations
QUESTIONS WE INVESTIGATE
- How does monetary policy transmit into economic activity?
- Does monetary expansion necessarily raise asset prices?
04International Economics
An interconnected world.
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International Economics
An interconnected world.
Cross-border trade, exchange rates, capital flows and economic interdependence.
RESEARCH SUBJECTS
- International trade
- Exchange rates
- Global capital flows
- Trade balances
- Emerging markets
QUESTIONS WE INVESTIGATE
- How do monetary shocks cross national borders?
- Why do exchange rates respond differently to similar policy changes?
05Economic History & Cycles
The past as evidence.
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Economic History & Cycles
The past as evidence.
Economic crises, structural transitions and the recurrence of economic conditions.
RESEARCH SUBJECTS
- The Great Depression
- 1970s inflation
- Japan's asset bubble
- The 2008 financial crisis
- Expansion and contraction
QUESTIONS WE INVESTIGATE
- Are economic cycles becoming shorter?
- Which features of past crises recur, and which do not?
06Economic Measurement
What do the numbers actually measure?
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Economic Measurement
What do the numbers actually measure?
Economic indicators, statistical definitions, comparability and the limits of forecasting.
RESEARCH SUBJECTS
- Nominal vs real GDP
- CPI and price indices
- Leading and lagging indicators
- Measurement uncertainty
- Correlation and causation
QUESTIONS WE INVESTIGATE
- What does GDP leave out?
- How comparable are inflation measures across countries?
Understanding economic systems.
An examination of the fundamental forces shaping economies, from individual decisions to global economic developments.
Economic Growth
GDP / PRODUCTIVITY / DEVELOPMENT
Inflation & Purchasing Power
PRICES / MONEY / PURCHASING POWER
Interest Rates & Credit
MONETARY POLICY / CAPITAL / CREDIT
Supply & Demand
MARKETS / PRICING / EQUILIBRIUM
Economic Cycles
EXPANSION / CONTRACTION / TRENDS
Global Economic Dynamics
TRADE / CAPITAL FLOWS / INTERDEPENDENCE
Research into economic mechanisms and their interactions, without limiting analysis to individual countries or regions.
From observation to explanation.
Economic question
Define the phenomenon and competing explanations.
Evidence & measurement
Review data, definitions, historical comparisons and limitations.
Market interpretation
Where relevant, examine price, volatility and technical market structure.
Review & revision
Test assumptions, communicate uncertainty and revise conclusions.