The Quant Society · Behavioral Science

THE QUANT SOCIETY

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE

Behavioral Gap Engine

Capture what the analyst believed, what was executed, and what happened next.

TQS / BS / BGE / 01

Research principle: the Behavioral Gap is not “being wrong.” It is the observable difference between a pre-committed analytical prescription and the action actually executed. Outcome quality is evaluated separately to reduce outcome bias — the tendency to judge a decision mainly by what happened afterward.

1. Pre-Trade Thesis

Define the plan before execution. Once locked, this is the ex-ante record.

Asset

Timeframe

Thesis / prescribed action

Planned entry

Planned size

Stop / invalidation

Target

Confidence

Research Thesis

Full analysis / research note

MARKET / MACRO CONTEXT

LIQUIDITY & MARKET STRUCTURE

ORDER FLOW / EXECUTION EVIDENCE

WHY BUY / SELL / WAIT?

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO / OPPORTUNITY COST

THESIS STATUSNot locked yet.

Market Feed

Public Binance market data with Binance Vision fallback. If unavailable, manual prices still work.

Research Archive

Cases are stored in IndexedDB when supported, with localStorage fallback. JSON export is the safest portable backup.

NOTION BRIDGE

This local tool captures and exports observations. It does not pretend to contain an AI or a Notion connection. Import observations into the TQS Notion database; ChatGPT can then read that connected database and analyze patterns across real cases.

Observations

No saved cases.

MARKET PRICE--

BEHAVIORAL GAP--

ACTUAL P&L--

PLAN P&L--

BEHAVIORAL COST--

Real Market Chart

Real candles when loaded. Cyan = locked plan; blue = contradictory execution; amber = stop / target.

Locked thesis Actual contradictory execution Stop / target Positive P&L Negative P&L

The Behavioral Gap

Cyan is the locked prescribed action. White is the actual action. Electric blue is the visible distance between them.

Lock a thesis and record execution to visualize the gap.

Behavioral Attribution

WAITING FOR EXECUTION

Lock a thesis and record actual execution.

The journal has not yet recorded enough information to compare plan and execution.

2. Execution Record

Record what happened in reality. A deviation is not automatically irrational: new information can justify a thesis update.

Actual action

Actual entry

Actual size

Actual exit

Fees / costs

Did genuinely new information justify changing the thesis?

Reason for deviation

Execution notes

Scientific Interpretation

Pending

Lock a thesis and record execution.

WHY THE GAP MATTERS Ex-ante process vs ex-post outcome

The model treats the locked thesis as the ex-ante decision rule and P&L as an ex-post outcome. This prevents a winning violation from being automatically reclassified as a good decision. In decision science, this protects against outcome bias and hindsight reconstruction.

IMPORTANT LIMITATION Counterfactual P&L is conditional

The planned P&L is a reconstructed counterfactual using the locked entry, side and size. It becomes more credible when entry, stop, target and management rules were specified before execution. It is not causal proof of what “would definitely have happened.”

Counterfactual Analysis

	Actual	Locked Plan
Side	--	--
Entry	--	--
Exit / Mark	--	--
P&L	--	--

BEHAVIORAL OPPORTUNITY COST --

Plan-consistent P&L minus actual P&L. Positive values indicate that deviation underperformed the locked plan on the observed path.

Journal Events

THE QUANT SOCIETY · BEHAVIORAL SCIENCEOBSERVE · RECORD · COMPARE · LEARNTQS / BS / BGE / 01